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TRAX

How It Works

Understanding the scoring systems, badges, and recommendations

🎯 TRAX ScoreFinal Score

The TRAX Score is the final composite score (0-100) that determines our recommendation tier. Higher = better.

TRAX Score = (Brett Score × 40%) + (Composite × 60%)
75+
STRONG
55-74
CONSIDER
<55
PASS
📊 Brett Score (Speed Figure Analysis)40% of TRAX

Based on Brett's analysis method: study speed figures to find horses trending in the right direction or bouncing back to their best.

Brett's Philosophy:
“Lower the number is better. Find a horse trending in the right direction or catch one with a pattern to get back to their best number.”

How It's Calculated:

  • Raw Figure: Most recent speed figure from past performances
  • Trend: Compare last 2 races vs previous 3 races
  • Bounce Detection: Had a good figure before, dipped, showing signs of return

Indicators:

🏃 Fast Figure (≤16)↗️ Improving Trend🔄 Bounce Candidate
⚙️ System Scores60% of TRAX (via Composite)

SPEED Score

Based on jockey performance

  • Base: Jockey win % (12% avg, 20%+ elite)
  • Bonus: ROI ≥1.5 (+10pts), ROI ≥1.2 (+5pts)
  • Experience bonus: 500+ starts (+5pts)

FORM Score

Based on trainer performance

  • Base: Trainer win % (15% avg, 25%+ elite)
  • ITM bonus: Higher ITM% = more consistent
  • Volume bonus: 1000+ starts with 15%+ win rate

PACE Score

Based on weight assignment

  • 118 lbs is typical baseline
  • Lighter weight = potential pace advantage
  • Range: 40-80 based on weight

COMPOSITE Score

Composite = (SPEED × 1.2) + (FORM × 1.0) + (PACE × 0.5) / total_weight

Speed is weighted highest as it reflects finishing ability

🏅 Analysis Badges

Badges highlight specific edges that may not be fully captured in the scores:

🔥
Hot Jockey
Win rate ≥15% (last 12 months)
⭐
Elite Trainer
Win rate ≥18%
✓
High ITM
In-the-money rate ≥40%
🪶
Light Weight
Carrying <118 lbs
🏃
Fast Figure
Speed figure ≤16
↗️
Improving
Speed figures trending down (faster)
🔄
Bounce Candidate
Had good figure, dipped, showing return
🎖️ Recommendation Tiers

The final tier is determined by TRAX Score plus edge count:

STRONG
TRAX ≥75 OR (TRAX ≥65 AND 2+ edges)
Top tier pick - multiple factors align
CONSIDER
TRAX ≥55 OR 1+ edge
Worth considering - has positive factors
PASS
TRAX <55 AND no edges
Below threshold - limited support
📋 Data Sources
  • ✓Trainer/Jockey Stats: Extracted from DRF program data
  • ✓Speed Figures: From past performance lines in DRF
  • ✓Weight/Post: Official race day assignments
  • ✓Past Performances: Last 5-10 races per horse

TRAX is an analysis aid, not financial advice.

For entertainment purposes only.